Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Primary Vote Tallies: 4/27/2016

Last night the results came in from the Northeast version of the "Super Tuesday" primary for both parties, GOP & Dem: CT, DE, MD, PA & RI. Trump swept all states with percents in the 50s & 60s, while Clinton took four states. On one hand, it has been claimed that turnout is greater than in other recent primaries, indicating a surge in political interest this year, but on the other hand, 538 claims that turnout in the primary is unrelated to turnout in the general election. From the candidate's perspective, Trump has claimed that he has "millions more" votes than Cruz.

There are numerous ways to look at each of these claims. In general, each of the claims is true, and as of the most recent votes (4/26/16), they remain true. However, digging into the data can produce interesting results--I have provided two data table below of all of the state votes so far: the first are sum totals by candidate, and the second is all of the data at the state level. Total, Clinton has received the most votes of any individual candidate, and she can make Trump's claim, that she has "millions more" votes than Trump. She also has "millions more" votes than Cruz and Kasich combined. Sanders has more votes than Cruz or Kasich separately, but fewer votes than Trump. Clinton and Sanders combined have received more votes than Trump, Cruz and Kasich combined.

Clinton12,173,896
Trump9,972,683
Sanders8,980,077
Cruz6,777,746
Kasich3,641,272
Cruz+Kasich10,419,018
Clinton+ Sanders21,153,973
Trump+Cruz+Kasich20,391,701

Then table below is the data I used for this analysis. There are some important caveats in the totals I presented above. First, there are states where raw citizen vote numbers for one or both parties simply aren't published. For example, Alaska, Wyoming and Colorado provide only delegate convention votes for either the Dem or GOP side, or both. I have excluded those states from the table. Second, some states have only had a primary/caucus for one of the parties, such as Kentucky, Nebraska and Washington. I have excluded those states from the count as well. Third, I have intentionally excluded counts for any other delegates, like O'Malley on the Democrat size, or Rubio, Carson, etc, on the Republican side. I make no claims for the total GOP or Dem totals if you factored in those votes, or the votes from the states I excluded.

StateBernie SandersHillary ClintonDonald TrumpTed CruzJohn Kasich
Alabama7639930992837173518060837970
Arizona16340023569724991613214753040
Arkansas6486814458013314412387315098
Connecticut36659559501225192477960447
Delaware152895169763424721111014225
Florida56660310974001077221403640159412
Georgia21433254300850170730510972303
Hawaii2353010125680550631566
Idaho1864050656247810094216517
Illinois9820171017006556916434038282874
Iowa852558574545427516663474
Kansas264501259317062352077795
Louisiana7224022161512481811394919355
Maine22311232607085502270
Maryland28127553324723662382038100089
Massachussets58671660378431131360473113783
Michigan595222576795483751330015321655
Minnesota1181357351024018326846488
Mississippi3634818244719175514706535817
Missouri30907131060238209338036792533
Nevada5678631634531160792709
New Hampshire151584952521004063318944909
New York7634691054083524932126151217904
North Carolina460316616383458151418740144299
Ohio513549679266727585267592956762
Oklahoma17405413933813014115794116515
Pennsylvania719911918649892702340201304793
Rhode Island667205249339059639314929
South Carolina9597727151423985116479056206
Tennessee12033324530433270221115945243
Texas4755619350807576181239370120257
Utah61333156662486412256729773
Vermont1158631833519968592918543
Virginia27550750335835596017319396519
Wisconsin567936432767386370531129155200
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